Cases Down, Dollars Up

- **Key themes:** Two-speed US beverage alcohol market—volume contraction and credit stress in wine and mainstream beer versus price/premium/RTD/NA/digital resilience at scale players; California wine oversupply, vine pulling and bankruptcies; policy fights over dietary guidelines, New York grocery access, hemp/kratom, Canadian whisky tariffs; distribution consolidation and cargo-theft enforcement.

- **Notable stories:** Gundlach Bundschu Chapter 11 and Signorello foreclosure (American AgCredit, Tiverton, Azur Associates, Silicon Valley Bank/Rob McMillan); ABI Capital Markets Day (BEES, Balanced Choices, Beyond Beer/Cutwater/NUTRL, 5-9% EBIT, Michelob Ultra); Diageo US reset and CFO change (Joanne Wilson succeeding Nik Jhangiani, Crown Royal/Smirnoff/Captain Morgan/Casamigos/Don Julio); Circana/NIQ/BeerBoard data (NA beer surge, FMB/craft declines, RTD share to 10%, NFL on-premise softness); Wente-Bronco partnership, Boisset-Artesa, Sazerac-Berentzen bid, Mark Anthony-Reyes Colorado shift; Hoplark Chapter 7 vs Brooklyn Brewery; Yardbird and Uncle Nearest distress; Instacart-Gopuff, DoorDash settlement; House Oversight/Synergy Enterprises alcohol study; New York supermarket wine/spirits coalition.

- **Big takeaways:** Pricing and mix still fund earnings even as cases fall; wine faces a permanently smaller, more consolidated industry with tighter cash-flow underwriting; large suppliers (ABI, Diageo, Constellation, Sazerac) can adapt via digital platforms, RTDs, NA, bottling shifts and M&A; smaller/undifferentiated players, regional wineries and some distributors/restaurants face higher bankruptcy, labor and compliance risk; watch New York three-tier reform, Canadian retaliation, federal alcohol messaging and organized-theft enforcement into 2027.