US alcohol industry in structural freefall

- **Key Themes**: Prolonged U.S. volume contraction in beer (16th month of tax-paid declines, BPI at 40, craft conglomerates under 25% growth), wine (light 2026 crush, tasting-room misalignment), and spirits (destocking, tequila weakness, Canadian whisky tariffs); RTDs, NA, and price/mix as sole offsets; wholesale fragmentation via RNDC Chapter 11.

- **Notable Stories**: Saothair restores NAB/FIFCO USA independence with Labatt, Genesee, and RTDs; Brown-Forman Q1 GM 60.2%, RTD momentum, tequila drag, rejected Sazerac/Pernod; Pernod FY sales -3.9% organic, U.S. -14%, soft through 2029, Italicus close; RNDC Georgia WARN 558 jobs, lease rejections, Indiana LOI to MBG; Martignetti buys Girardi; NDC expansion; Sierra Nevada packaging refresh; Signorello Ch11, Pickett Fire claims, Napa climate plan; Gallup 54% drinkers (record low), alcohol-cancer deaths doubled; hemp prohibition delayed; Delaware DTC flawed launch.

- **Big Takeaways**: Multi-year destock and demographic moderation (Gen Z, health, GLP-1, cannabis) shrink the volume base through 2026–2029; execution now hinges on independent wholesalers, RTD/NA recruitment, small formats, and specialty grocery; wine faces overlapping harvest, fire, credit, and narrative risks; operators underwrite grind, not recovery, with 2029 as the earliest large-house ca