Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | August 07, 2026

- **Diageo reset:** ~$1B cost cuts ($850M operating model + $150M supply chain); organic sales –2% to $19.6B; NA –8.4%; US spirits –11.5%; dividend halved; guidance to low-single-digit sales / mid-single-digit OP growth; Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Crown Royal value-pack push; Don Julio/Casamigos smaller formats; RTDs across cores; Guinness ~$1B to 2030; shares +5.6%.

- **RNDC Chapter 11:** >$3B brand revenue lost; >$400M unsecured claims (~$94M Proximo largest); liabilities $1–10B vs assets $500M–$1B; 5,444+ WARN layoffs; Reyes 11-market deal (~38M cases, 16 states); Southern Glazer’s Eagle Rock Colorado close (full A-B portfolio + Cutwater/NÜTRL/BeatBox); Martignetti Michigan brokerage + Breakthru IN/KY JVs; Heimark acquiring Alford (Imperial, CA).

- **Molson Coors Q2:** Revenue $3.10B –3.3%; adj EPS $1.58 beat; volumes soft; Coors Banquet strong; Blue Moon/Core Lights weak; Keystone Light Apple & Keystone Ice; Atomic/Monaco RTD integration; FY guidance reaffirmed (flat sales, profit down mid-teens).

- **Off-premise scans (Circana/NIQ/TD Cowen/Goldman):** Total bev-alc under pressure; beer decisive drag; spirits + RTDs outperform; Michelob, White Claw, Pacifico, Athletic, Bell’s gain; Bud, Miller Lite, Twisted Tea, Modelo soft; World Cup on-prem beer lift.

- **AB InBev / Cutwater:** Bud Light barrels sliding (12.7M est.); media shift to Michelob Ultra; Cutwater toward $1B, #1 share-gaining US spirits brand, high-ABV canned cocktails.

- **Campari H1:** +2.7% organic; Espolon +8.2% H1 / #2 premium tequila; Aperol activation + later +3.3% H1 slowdown; St-Germain +40% on Hugo spritz; Courvoisier growth; portfolio exits (Cabo Wabo, Bisquit; agricole talks); tariff-refund profit outlook raise.

- **MGP / Brown-Forman / bulk whiskey:** MGP sales –15%, brown goods –59%, Limestone Branch & Lux Row paused; Penelope +13%; BF Citi negative catalyst watch, rejected Sazerac ~$15B approach; Jack Daniel’s Blackberry cycle.

- **Craft beer:** BA H1 volume –4%; only IPA brands growing in top 30 (Voodoo Ranger family, Hazy Little Thing, Space Dust, Little Sumpin’, etc.).

- **Wine stress:** WMC leadership handoff (Thach ? Egan); Sauvignon Blanc/white blends/NA wine bright; Cab/Chard soft; Signorello $37M foreclosure auction; bulk Pinot “giveaway”; Beckstoffer layoffs/unfarmed acres; mothballing trials; Napa compliance ~$23.65/case; WA acreage –40%; Concha y Toro US transition pain; Bronco–Jordan partnership; Willamette Valley preferred offering; Come Over October ~3B impressions.

- **Cannabis crossover:** SAMHSA—21.4M daily/near-daily marijuana > 17.2M daily alcohol > 19.9M cigarettes; daily cannabis +21% since 2021; Perfect Union RFID self-checkout first in CA.

- **Hemp & regulatory:** White House/Senate CR delay fight (Nov 12 ? Dec 11 non-synthetic); 35 AGs oppose delay; Hemp Beverage Alliance applauds; Safe Sips Act color-coding; NC ABC min-price hike; Oregon 2028 grocery-spirits initiative; FTC–Southern Glazer’s Robinson-Patman extension; Jack Daniel’s Bad Spaniels tarnishment injunction overturned; Origin Spirits v. Starbucks (Kalak); SweetWater/Tilray logo dispute dismissed.

- **Portfolio / M&A / other:** Johnson Brothers × William Grant (IN/NE/ND/SD); Corby sells Lamb’s rum; Next Century Spirits acquires Chicken Cock, Dixie, Elvis Whiskey, EG Booz + Bardstown/NuLu assets; Beckmann/Becle into LAFC ownership; Daily Pour acquires Rum Lab + Rum Festival platform; Costco traffic resilient; Bloomin’/Outback trade-up; Marie Brizard US +12% Q2; India FSSAI additive bans; wildfire watch (Sonoma Woodside, Gironde).

- **Big takeaway:** RNDC unwind + daily cannabis overtaking alcohol redefine risk; near-term defense = price/mix, value packs, high-proof RTDs (Cutwater, Monaco, flavored spirits), premium tequila/aperitifs (Espolon, Aperol/St-Germain), and total-beverage distributor scale (Reyes, Southern Glazer’s). Beer scale, IPA concentration, bulk whiskey, and wine inventory/credit remain the headwinds to watch through 2H 2026.