Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | January 16, 2026

- **Theme of the week:** A “K-shaped” U.S. alcohol market—headline declines, but strong growth pockets in NA beer, RTDs, and select super-premium brands

- **Beer 2025 wrap:** Total beer finished down in dollars and volume; **domestic premium weakened** while **domestic super premium and NA beer grew sharply**

- **Channel signal:** Convenience stores are holding up better for beer, with **NA beer surging** and seltzer stabilizing relative to broader retail

- **On-premise vs off-premise:** Alcohol pricing **away from home is rising faster** than at-home inflation, reinforcing the battle for occasions and mix

- **Distribution disruption risk:** RNDC uncertainty and supplier exits are accelerating wholesaler consolidation; **route-to-market stability is now a P&L issue**

- **Demand + inventory backdrop:** Moderation trend remains strong; elevated inventories increase the risk of shipment volatility and promo pressure

- **Hemp tightening:** Federal and state actions are narrowing the intoxicating hemp playing field—**higher compliance costs, fewer gray areas**

- **Wine watch:** Ongoing off-premise softness plus new sourcing/transparency scrutiny (including “American” labeling proposals)

- **Big takeaway:** Growth is available, but it’s concentrated—winning in 2026 means aligning portfolio bets with the right occasions, channels, and distributors while staying ahead of regulation