Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | February 27, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:**

- US bev-alc market showing tentative recovery; January 2026 comps turned positive for first time in over a year

- RTD cocktails dominate growth: spirits-based RTDs +39.4%, wine-based RTDs +23.7%

- Premium spirits correction deepening: Diageo US sales -6.8%, MGP brown goods -52%

- Generational consumption shift accelerating; binge drinking among 21-34 year olds down ~3.9 million people over decade

- Regulatory uncertainty compounding across THC, tariffs, distribution, and state-level wine sales

**Notable Stories:**

- **Diageo** — New CEO Dave Lewis plans sweeping leadership overhaul; halves dividend; signals pivot away from premiumization; shares drop ~13%

- **MGP Ingredients** — FY25 sales collapse 24%; 2026 guidance misses consensus by wide margin; shares fall 21% intraday

- **Uncle Nearest** — Receivership escalates; ~$200M total debt; emergency asset sales underway; March federal court ruling expected

- **Stoli Group** — Amber Beverage Group confirms default; no permanent CEO since July 2025

- **Molson Coors** — Horizon 2030 strategy with $450M savings program; BofA downgrades to Underperform; M&A targets discussed

- **Boston Beer** — Q4 loss narrows; gross margin improves 360bps; 2026 guidance below consensus; tariff uncertainty flagged

- **Celsius Holdings** — Q4 revenue +117% YoY on Alani Nu strength; competitive pressure on bev-alc among younger consumers

- **Southern Glazer's & Breakthru Beverage** — Both announce workforce reductions

- **THC beverages** — Federal ban effective November 2026; industry mobilizing for legislative fix before summer recess

- **US wine exports** — Collapse 33.5% to $850M; Canada exports down 76.8%

- **California wine** — Major closures at Jackson Family Wines, Gallo, Foley, Constellation; Treasury Wine Estates pauses dividend

- **NA beer** — Growth decelerating; Michelob Ultra Zero +210%, Athletic Brewing holds lead but growth slows

- **Convenience stores** — Spirits +5.4%; THC beverages +134% to $200.5M; retailers cutting alcohol SKUs for THC shelf space

- **Supreme Court tariff ruling** — IEEPA authority struck down; effective rate drops to ~13%; Section 301 investigations pending

- **KDP/JDEP** — Acquisition targeting early April close; ~$9B debt, $8.5B equity, $4.5B convertible preferred

- **Key brand performers** — Cutwater, BuzzBallz, Surfside, BeatBox, Sun Cruiser (RTD); Modelo, Pacifico, Michelob Ultra (beer)

- **Distribution** — Barton & Guestier signs five-year exclusive with Southern Glazer's; Mississippi ABC warehouse in crisis

- **People** — Daniel Duckhorn passes at 87; Melanie Batchelor named William Grant US President; Robert Cullins elevated at Illva Saronno; Brandon Lieb named Aguasol CEO

- **Retail** — Sprouts Farmers Market plans 40+ new stores; NY wine-in-grocery legislation opposed; CA distribution law challenged

- **Compliance** — TTB "bottle marrying" prohibition gains national attention; risk reminder for on-premise operators

- **Wholesale inventories** — 43% above 2019 average per Evercore ISI; inventory-to-sales ratio remains elevated

**Big Takeaways:**

1. RTDs are redefining the volume story — growth is concentrated among scaled brands with major distribution networks

2. The US spirits correction is deeper and longer than consensus; MGP's guidance suggests no bottom until at least mid-2027

3. Regulatory and trade headwinds are compounding — THC ban, tariffs, state-level battles all demand proactive engagement

4. The generational shift away from alcohol consumption is structural, not cyclical — energy drinks, fitness, and moderation are permanent competitive forces