Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | March 06, 2026

**Key Themes This Week:**

- US alcohol consumption hits record-low 54% of adults; structural demographic shift, not cyclical downturn

- Off-premise dollar sales declining across nearly all segments; prepared cocktails and RTDs the sole growth category

- Non-alcoholic beer continues double-digit growth but shows early signs of maturation

**Major Company Moves:**

- **Reyes Beverage Group** expands RNDC acquisition to 11 states (adding AZ, CO, LA, OK, TX); closing expected May 2026

- **Tilray Brands** acquires global BrewDog brand, Scottish brewery, and 11 UK pubs for ~$44M (~$66/bbl)

- **Diageo** outlines RTD-first growth strategy under new CEO Sir Dave Lewis; meaningful results not expected before FY2027

- **Brown-Forman** downgraded by Bernstein to Market Perform; wins Sixth Circuit labor ruling invalidating NLRB Cemex standard

- **A-B InBev** shares near five-year highs; spirits portfolio now 3% of US revenue, growing at 2x category rate

- **Boston Beer** closing Angel City brewery in LA (66 layoffs); brand sale has not materialized

- **Mercer Wine Estates** acquires four Washington wine brands from Avallé

- **Johnson Brothers** expands distribution partnership with Maisons Marques & Domaines into Colorado

- **Barboursville Vineyards** (VA) sold to investor group at 50th anniversary

**Wine Industry Crisis:**

- $1B+ revenue loss in 2025; ~6M case production drop; CA vineyard footprint down to ~477K acres

- Jackson Family Wines, E&J Gallo, Mission Bell Winery closures and layoffs

- DTC shipments fell 10% in 2024 — steepest decline ever recorded

- Wine at-home CPI in deflation at -1.5% YoY

**Craft Beer Update:**

- YTD craft dollar sales cooled to +0.3% (from +2.3% in Jan); volume now -1.6%

- Olfactory Brewing (SF) and Rotten Little Bastard (SC) filed Chapter 7 bankruptcy

- Standouts: Voodoo Ranger Fruit Force (+59.7% L4W), Georgetown Bodhizafa (+17.5%), Athletic Brewing (+18.3%)

**Legal & Regulatory:**

- Federal grand jury indicts five former Southern Glazer's employees in Albertsons bribery scheme (2016–2024)

- Uncle Nearest receivership deepens; Jay-Z's $20M secret loan surfaces; Farm Credit alleges fraud; federal ruling pending

- SCOTUS poised to rule on Arizona DTC wine shipping law

- New York opens retail-to-retail wine and liquor sales (up to 6 bottles/week)

- Florida Supreme Court ends 2026 cannabis ballot initiative

- Sixth Circuit Ream v. Treasury case could legalize home distilling

**Macro & Consumer Data:**

- Feb nonfarm payrolls: -92K; unemployment: 4.4%; CPI near 3%

- Wells Fargo expects 50bps of Fed rate cuts (June, September)

- NFIB Small Business Optimism declined for second straight month

- Kroger, Costco, BJ's post mixed retail results

- PwC: consumers willing to pay ~9.7% sustainability premium

- University of Evansville study: alcohol brand associations are culturally learned, not physiological

**Big Takeaways:**

1. Portfolio diversification across RTD, NA, and spirits is now a structural imperative — not a growth strategy

2. Wine's contraction is simultaneous across DTC and traditional distribution; surviving producers must pivot to experiential and premium DTC models

3. The Reyes-RNDC deal reshapes middle-tier economics across 11 states; affected suppliers must engage proactively before May close

4. Legal and compliance risk is elevated on multiple fronts; TTB trade practice enforcement should be treated as an active organizational priority