Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 17, 2026

**Key Themes**

- Persistent off-premise softness (–2.7 to –3.1% dollars YTD/4-week ranges; volumes –3.9 to –4.9%) despite Independence Day and World Cup lifts.

- Prepared cocktails/spirits-based RTDs and NA beer as primary growth engines; wine and craft under structural pressure.

- Distribution shock from RNDC wind-down cascading into widespread payment delays; Reyes total-beverage rise and regional consolidations.

- Escalating Canada trade friction via Tenney’s CANADA Act and Section 301 push.

- Sharp wine-industry right-sizing: Top-50 production –19% since 2019, acute Napa vineyard economics, Oregon “worst crisis in 20 years,” early light California harvest.

- Leadership and litigation drama: Brown-Forman CEO succession + $25.3 M compensation jump post-Sazerac reject; Uncle Nearest receivership/SEC/DOJ filings and Chapter 11 exploration.

**Notable Stories & Brands**

- **Trade & Policy:** CANADA Act (Tenney), endorsements (DISCUS, ACSA, AWA, Wine Institute, WineAmerica); AWA joins World Spirits Alliance; ERP amicus (DISCUS/Wine Institute); Common Cents Act; ABI/SABMiller consent decree expiration; SNAP bans & June 22 ruling; Oregon carcinogen post pushback; Washington/Oregon spirits taxes; NY “Cheers for Change”; Madison phishing; hemp legality cliff.

- **Corporate Moves:** Lawson Whiting retirement/search (Brown-Forman; possible Masick/Farrer); Sazerac $15 B reject, Pernod talks ended; Rémy Cointreau flat Q1; Quality Brands/RNDC Plains (Young, Malone); Pellenc acq of P&L Specialties + Tom Beard; Firestone Walker/Stone; No Sleep’s The 100 Proof agency; Coca-Cola fairlife ransomware suspension.

- **Sales & Format Wins:** Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, BuzzBallz, Super Lyte, Athletic, Asahi, New Belgium, Pacifico, Victoria, Peroni, Michelob, Modelo flips, NA beer, Josh, LaMarca; A-B prepared +33.7%; Hemp +133% case volume (Hemp Beverage Alliance).

- **Wine Pressure & Green Shoots:** Gallo/Wine Group/Trinchero/Delicato/Deutsch/TWE/Ste. Michelle/Constellation metrics; Ted Hall/Long Meadow, Allied Grape Growers unharvested acres; Eleven Eleven (Anest) club metrics & flexible sub; Empson additions (Kirwan, Malescasse, Franc Mayne, de la Chapelle, Gérin & Fils); Liv-ex US fine-wine re-engagement (26.9% share); Kroger Wine Shop rollout; on-prem 6× markups & Colangelo/Southern Glazer’s/WMC data; Oregon/Wine Board/Stoller crisis; early Santa Rita Hills/Santa Barbara picks.

- **Spirits & Risk:** Uncle Nearest (Young counterclaim “willful blindness,” Senzaki alleged fraud, Weaver terminations, $20 M MarcyPen, potential Ch. 11 Black-led sale); LIV Vodka vs LIV Golf; Diageo Casamigos/Don Julio declines + additive suit; Brown-Forman Canada/Jack Daniel’s –60%; celebrity cooling vs estate brands (James Dean/Lasso Motel, Remus Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig, Sinatra, Elvis, John Wayne).

- **Consumer:** IWSR Gen Z participation rebound to 74% (U.S. ~71%); drinks/occasion to 3.9; Millennials still highest.

**Big Takeaways**

- Volume moderation and value architecture are structural; participation (especially Gen Z cocktails) is recovering.

- Three-tier cash-flow stability and trade access now rank alongside brand innovation as top-of-mind risks.

- Scale, smart-value mid-premium, flexible DTC, RTD/NA/hemp adjacency, and authentic provenance are the clearest differentiators for the balance of 2026.

- Operators who treat connection, pricing realism and operational discipline as strategy continue to outperform.