Weekly Beverage Alcohol Recap | July 24, 2026

**Week framed by:** Soft post-holiday off-premise demand, Brown-Forman CEO succession, Diageo cost/strategy reset, Canada/Mexico trade escalation, A-B decree expiry, RTD & NA outperformance

### Major corporate & leadership

- **Brown-Forman:** CEO Lawson Whiting to retire on successor appointment; board search (chair Tracy Skeans); FY26 sales $3.9B (-1%), EPS $1.53 (-17%); FY27 flat organic sales, -3–5% organic OI; stock $26.25; Pernod talks ended Apr 28; Sazerac ~$15B /$32/sh bid rejected May; internal names Michael Masick, Marshall Farrer; Wolf Pen Branch supportive

- **Diageo:** CEO Dave Lewis cutting headcount 20–30% (some units to ~40%); Accelerate $625M by 2028 / ~$300M this year; H1 OM 29.8% (+85 bps); Aug 6 CMD—power brands (Guinness, tequila), Casamigos price-pack vs Don Julio, flatter model; Chair Sir John Manzoni recruiting commercial board heavyweights; US spirits >50% EBIT; 5-yr shares roughly -50% / -49.1%; 4-wk sales -7.3%, vol -8.8%, Casamigos -10.9%, Don Julio -8.7%

- **Jim Cramer:** Avoid every liquor stock; category “cold”

- **Wine Market Council:** Dr. Liz Thach, MW retires Aug 5; Michelle Egan succeeds

- **Apogee 21 Holdings:** LOI for Rod & Hammer (Central Coast craft distillery) after Noble Oak (from Edrington); target Q4 close

- **21st Amendment / Evil Genius:** TTB offer in compromise $423,681.93 on $1.22M claim (San Leandro, 2018–2025); brand acquired Apr 2026

- **Independent Stave / Alabama Cooperage (Trinity):** Closing Sept 14, >70 jobs; Jack Daniel’s barrels; was BF asset, opened 2014

- **Flavorman:** Moonshine University closing Dec 31, 2026 (337 courses, 15k+ attendees, ~300 launches); Stave & Thief wind-down

- **Concannon dispute:** Lemmons Family Vineyards vs Darcie Kent / Almost Famous; ~$966k; hearing Aug 10

### Sales, scanners & consumers

- **NIQ / Circana:** Post-July 4 snap-back then hangover; total alcohol ~$9.3B, roughly -2.6% to -3% dollars; wine worst, spirits relatively firmer when RTDs included; prepared cocktails sole major dollar-growth pocket

- **Spirits mix:** Prep cocktails vol ~+19.5%; core spirits ex-RTD vol -3.4%, sales -2.4%; tequila flipped +0.5%; whiskey/vodka still weak

- **Beer winners:** Pacifico, Victoria, Michelob / Ultra Zero NA, Guinness, Smirnoff FMBs, Athletic, New Belgium; NA beer +17.8%; Modelo/STZ solid; Bud Light/Budweiser/Heineken pressured

- **RTD rockets:** BuzzBallz, Cutwater, Surfside, Sun Cruiser, Carbliss, Monaco; High Noon -8.4%

- **Boston Beer:** Scanner vol ~-8.3% in quarter; Truly/Twisted Tea challenged; Sun Cruiser bright spot; 48–50% GM guide

- **Wine:** DTC June -11% value / -16% vol; YTD value -4%, vol -15%; avg bottle $59.20 (+12.4%); Napa only major region in value growth; LaMarca, Josh, Whitehaven, Avaline strong; Deutsch +, Gallo/Wine Group -; NA wine +15.7%

- **Craft BA H1:** Prod -4%; 9,344 breweries (-1.8%); 54% of breweries growing; craft drinker monthly incidence 85% (+10 pts)

- **Energy:** Category firm; Monster/Ultra, Celsius/Alani Nu (+45.5%), Ghost +; Red Bull/KDP mixed

- **IWSR / Gen Z:** Participation ~70%+; Gen Z 71–74% and rising; Millennials 81%; drinks/occasion 3.9 (from 4.4); Gen Z highly cocktail-oriented (84%)

- **Wholesale (Census/FRED):** May beer/wine/spirits $15.381B

- **Evercore beer:** 2026 vol outlook ~-2.4% (vs -5.4% in 2025); STZ/ABI share gainers; Cutwater sourcing from spirits & beer

- **On-premise / NRA:** Restaurant opex +36% vs pre-pandemic (= menu +36%); wages +41%; 42% of operators unprofitable in 2025; World Cup week on-prem beer +11.5%

### Distribution & trade

- **A-B DOJ consent decree:** Expired July 20, 2026—monitor, anti-punishment rules, distribution caps gone; 100–150 distributors reportedly flagged out of compliance last year

- **Quality Brands / RNDC:** Closed Plains deal (NE, ND, SD); ~160 employees retained; Dave Young President W&S; Eric Malone VP Sales

- **RNDC Michigan:** Conditional WARN—641 workers, five sites, Aug 17 date; potential Martignetti control-state deal unconfirmed

- **Canada Section 338:** +50% duties effective Aug 19, 2026; response to provincial US alcohol bans since Mar 2025; US?Canada alcohol imports -81% ($718M?$137M); only AB & SK eased; DISCUS warns of retaliation spiral

- **Teamsters / Mexican beer:** Seek tariffs up to 75% on Modelo, Corona, Pacifico, Tecate et al.; MX production +85% since 2014; ~80% of MX beer exports to US; US brewery utilization 82%?65% (2013–23); +19–23M hl MX capacity planned; USTR 301 backdrop

### Regulation, tax & legal

- **Oregon EPR:** DISCUS + Wine Institute amicus (NAWD v. Feldon)—glass vs plastic fee disparity; Commerce Clause angle

- **Tax Foundation:** WA effective spirits tax $36.68/gal vs median $5.98; OR $23.74

- **NY Cheers for Change:** Push to modernize 200-ft / 500-ft, multi-store, tied-house rules

- **Minnesota:** “Grandparents’ Happy Hour” for nursing homes / assisted living events

- **Oregon OHA:** Alcohol-as-asbestos/tobacco ads; 3,000+ alcohol deaths/yr; industry clash; Oregon Alcohol Policy Alliance supportive of OHA

- **Alabama ABC:** Bailment fee 72¢?$1.00 (Oct 2025); further hike delayed pending warehouse

- **WSWA:** 938 alcohol and/or hemp bills tracked in state legislatures in 2026

- **Missouri HB 1740:** Bentley Law + Melanie’s Law—child support after DWI parental death; tougher felony DWI; interlocks; 8th Bentley state

- **SCOTUS:** Ken Jouppi (AK) Cessna ~$95k forfeiture case after passenger’s Budweiser six-pack toward dry village—Eighth Amendment / excessive fines

- **Washington wildfires:** Chelan Hills ~10,000 acres; B&O >2,700 acres—vineyard/orchard impact assessment ongoing

### Big takeaways

1. **Holiday noise ? recovery** — dollars stabilized only modestly YoY after July 4; volume still soft outside RTD/NA/select imports

2. **Prepared cocktails & NA define growth** — core spirits, wine, and much of craft still negative

3. **Leadership & cost discipline** — Brown-Forman succession + Diageo purge signal a tougher operating era

4. **Route-to-market is shifting** — A-B decree expiry, RNDC/Martignetti/Quality Brands moves, Plains consolidation

5. **Trade risk is live** — Canada 50% duties Aug 19; Teamsters pressing 75% Mexican beer tariffs

6. **Policy grid is dense** — taxes, EPR, tied-house, DWI liability, TTB enforcement, 938 state bills

7. **Calendar markers:** Aug 6 Diageo CMD/results · Boston Beer print · Aug 10 Concannon hearing · Aug 17 RNDC WARN date · Aug 19 Canada duties · Sept 14 Alabama Cooperage close · Dec 31 Moonshine University close